Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alfio Bardolla Training Group S.p.A. (ABTG.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.86 - $6.55$5.03
Multi-Stage$15.00 - $16.56$15.77
Blended Fair Value$10.40
Current Price$1.94
Upside436.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.080.000.050.130.040.000.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-59.69%204.56%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.99%0.00%2.59%3.61%3.02%0.00%2.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.330.210.12
Cash Retained (M)1.061.061.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.33-0.21-0.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.730.860.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.115.115.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.86$5.03$6.55
Upside / Downside99.12%159.42%237.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1.661.641.631.611.591.581.62
Payout Ratio35.81%46.64%57.48%68.32%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.590.770.931.101.261.421.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.58%4.58%4.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)0.720.730.74
Year 2 PV (M)0.840.850.87
Year 3 PV (M)0.930.960.99
Year 4 PV (M)1.011.051.10
Year 5 PV (M)1.081.131.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)72.1375.8979.80
Equity Value (M)76.7180.6284.69
Shares Outstanding (M)5.115.115.11
Fair Value$15.00$15.77$16.56
Upside / Downside673.44%712.83%753.84%

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