Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,346.37 - $1,586.25$1,486.55
Multi-Stage$534.05 - $585.76$559.42
Blended Fair Value$1,022.99
Current Price$187.22
Upside446.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.93%5.58%2.242.140.002.011.881.761.741.711.641.48
YoY Growth--5.03%0.00%-100.00%6.83%6.71%1.36%1.78%3.99%11.02%13.61%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.14%0.00%1.21%1.42%1.80%2.05%2.30%1.79%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,554.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)437.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,117.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)310.83194.27116.56
Cash Retained (M)1,117.091,117.091,117.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-310.83-194.27-116.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)806.25922.821,000.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.85194.85194.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.144.745.13
LTM Dividend per Share2.242.242.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.144.745.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.386.987.38
WACC / Discount Rate4.57%4.57%4.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,346.37$1,486.55$1,586.25
Upside / Downside619.14%694.01%747.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,554.171,655.191,762.781,877.361,999.392,129.352,193.23
Payout Ratio28.12%40.50%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)437.08670.33932.051,224.961,552.021,916.412,028.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.57%4.57%4.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)635.04641.05647.07
Year 2 PV (M)836.49852.42868.51
Year 3 PV (M)1,041.491,071.391,101.85
Year 4 PV (M)1,250.091,298.161,347.61
Year 5 PV (M)1,462.331,532.961,606.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,835.42103,609.20108,565.70
Equity Value (M)104,060.85109,005.20114,137.04
Shares Outstanding (M)194.85194.85194.85
Fair Value$534.05$559.42$585.76
Upside / Downside185.25%198.81%212.87%

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