Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Aallon Group Oyj (AALLON.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.25 - $12.16$10.12
Multi-Stage$15.44 - $16.94$16.18
Blended Fair Value$13.15
Current Price$11.45
Upside14.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-10.93%0.00%0.220.210.200.180.180.390.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.87%6.35%10.05%-0.47%-54.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.57%1.97%1.90%1.53%1.82%3.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.820.510.31
Cash Retained (M)1.481.481.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.82-0.51-0.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.660.971.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.893.893.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.250.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.250.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.25$10.12$12.16
Upside / Downside-27.98%-11.58%6.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.094.054.013.973.933.894.01
Payout Ratio63.85%69.08%74.31%79.54%84.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.612.802.983.163.333.503.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.562.592.62
Year 2 PV (M)2.502.552.61
Year 3 PV (M)2.432.512.58
Year 4 PV (M)2.352.452.55
Year 5 PV (M)2.262.382.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)47.9350.4353.03
Equity Value (M)60.0562.9165.89
Shares Outstanding (M)3.893.893.89
Fair Value$15.44$16.18$16.94
Upside / Downside34.86%41.30%47.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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