Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,893.35 - $10,583.08$8,613.20
Multi-Stage$9,014.84 - $9,868.77$9,433.80
Blended Fair Value$9,023.50
Current Price$8,175.00
Upside10.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.14%-6.55%248.97400.96443.95254.9790.99223.98433.96517.9598.99386.14
YoY Growth---37.91%-9.68%74.12%180.22%-59.38%-48.39%-16.22%423.23%-74.36%-21.20%
Dividend Yield--4.45%5.79%5.48%2.03%0.91%4.15%3.85%3.84%0.66%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,416,511.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)515,764.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)900,747.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)283,302.20177,063.88106,238.33
Cash Retained (M)900,747.00900,747.00900,747.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-283,302.20-177,063.88-106,238.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)617,444.80723,683.13794,508.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,924.691,924.691,924.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share320.80376.00412.80
LTM Dividend per Share267.97267.97267.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share320.80376.00412.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend588.78643.97680.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate0.95%1.95%2.95%
Fair Value$6,893.35$8,613.20$10,583.08
Upside / Downside-15.68%5.36%29.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,416,511.001,444,164.131,472,357.111,501,100.471,530,404.961,560,281.531,607,089.98
Payout Ratio36.41%47.13%57.85%68.56%79.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)515,764.00680,615.74851,707.391,029,219.761,213,338.331,404,253.381,486,558.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate0.95%1.95%2.95%
Year 1 PV (M)615,050.42621,142.91627,235.40
Year 2 PV (M)695,517.19709,364.58723,348.46
Year 3 PV (M)759,511.40782,306.14805,552.46
Year 4 PV (M)809,127.24841,666.57875,177.61
Year 5 PV (M)846,231.35888,982.44933,444.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,625,323.0014,313,665.9115,029,551.65
Equity Value (M)17,350,760.6018,157,128.5418,994,309.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,924.691,924.691,924.69
Fair Value$9,014.84$9,433.80$9,868.77
Upside / Downside10.27%15.40%20.72%

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