Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Taste Gourmet Group Limited (8371.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.26 - $23.99$12.98
Multi-Stage$5.70 - $6.22$5.96
Blended Fair Value$9.47
Current Price$1.90
Upside398.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS34.88%0.00%0.130.110.060.080.010.030.040.000.060.00
YoY Growth--25.50%66.35%-21.31%443.43%-50.00%-21.76%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.22%7.42%4.40%7.87%1.29%2.35%4.43%0.00%7.17%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1815.749.44
Cash Retained (M)58.6158.6158.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.18-15.74-9.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.4342.8749.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)381.91381.91381.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.26$12.98$23.99
Upside / Downside334.97%583.21%1,162.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.90134.08142.79152.07161.96172.49177.66
Payout Ratio53.44%60.76%68.07%75.38%82.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.2881.4697.19114.63133.92155.24164.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.1274.8375.53
Year 2 PV (M)80.4782.0183.55
Year 3 PV (M)86.3688.8491.37
Year 4 PV (M)91.8195.3498.97
Year 5 PV (M)96.84101.51106.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,747.451,831.851,919.48
Equity Value (M)2,177.062,274.382,375.28
Shares Outstanding (M)381.91381.91381.91
Fair Value$5.70$5.96$6.22
Upside / Downside200.02%213.43%227.34%

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