DDM Analysis: 82020.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$216.24 - $541.52	$324.73
Multi-Stage	$153.43 - $167.45	$160.31
Blended Fair Value	$242.52
Current Price	$86.20
Upside	181.35%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	33.80%	18.94%	2.09	1.38	1.29	0.83	0.48	0.49	0.83	0.67	0.53	0.46
YoY Growth	-	-	50.97%	7.20%	55.62%	71.72%	-0.85%	-41.61%	25.21%	25.69%	15.54%	24.44%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.86%	2.08%	1.43%	0.87%	0.47%	0.78%	2.53%	2.27%	2.56%	2.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	28,115.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11,285.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	16,830.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,623.00	3,514.38	2,108.63
Cash Retained (M)	16,830.00	16,830.00	16,830.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,623.00	-3,514.38	-2,108.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)	11,207.00	13,315.63	14,721.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,905.40	2,905.40	2,905.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.86	4.58	5.07
LTM Dividend per Share	3.88	3.88	3.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.86	4.58	5.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.74	8.47	8.95
WACC / Discount Rate	9.28%	9.28%	9.28%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$216.24	$324.73	$541.52
Upside / Downside	150.86%	276.72%	528.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	28,115.00	29,942.48	31,888.74	33,961.50	36,169.00	38,519.99	39,675.59
Payout Ratio	40.14%	50.11%	60.08%	70.06%	80.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11,285.00	15,004.47	19,159.78	23,791.90	28,945.24	34,667.99	36,699.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.28%	9.28%	9.28%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	13,601.75	13,730.68	13,859.61
Year 2 PV (M)	15,744.88	16,044.77	16,347.50
Year 3 PV (M)	17,723.61	18,232.39	18,750.81
Year 4 PV (M)	19,546.75	20,298.46	21,071.65
Year 5 PV (M)	21,222.69	22,247.75	23,312.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	357,922.79	375,210.59	393,160.04
Equity Value (M)	445,762.46	465,764.65	486,501.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,905.40	2,905.40	2,905.40
Fair Value	$153.43	$160.31	$167.45
Upside / Downside	77.99%	85.97%	94.25%

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ANTA Sports-r (82020.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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