Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Starts Publishing Corporation (7849.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,076.12 - $15,006.36$10,045.11
Multi-Stage$5,262.67 - $5,742.71$5,498.37
Blended Fair Value$7,771.74
Current Price$4,400.00
Upside76.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.67%19.69%89.5929.9519.7917.4517.5317.4715.0215.0215.1114.85
YoY Growth--199.13%51.32%13.43%-0.44%0.30%16.34%-0.02%-0.55%1.75%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.32%0.71%0.59%1.16%1.40%1.46%1.07%1.45%1.86%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,448.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)459.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)989.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)289.72181.08108.65
Cash Retained (M)989.31989.31989.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-289.72-181.08-108.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)699.59808.23880.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.843.843.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share182.20210.50229.36
LTM Dividend per Share119.62119.62119.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share182.20210.50229.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend301.82330.12348.99
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,076.12$10,045.11$15,006.36
Upside / Downside60.82%128.30%241.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,448.611,542.771,643.051,749.841,863.581,984.722,044.26
Payout Ratio31.71%43.36%55.02%66.68%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)459.30669.02904.061,166.841,459.951,786.241,890.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)602.49608.20613.91
Year 2 PV (M)733.19747.16761.26
Year 3 PV (M)852.20876.66901.59
Year 4 PV (M)960.24997.171,035.15
Year 5 PV (M)1,058.011,109.121,162.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,000.3716,773.2017,575.60
Equity Value (M)20,206.5121,111.5022,049.68
Shares Outstanding (M)3.843.843.84
Fair Value$5,262.67$5,498.37$5,742.71
Upside / Downside19.61%24.96%30.52%

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