Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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F.C.C. Co., Ltd. (7296.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,249.75 - $13,443.46$8,916.92
Multi-Stage$4,803.20 - $5,232.06$5,013.80
Blended Fair Value$6,965.36
Current Price$2,793.00
Upside149.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.94%13.56%146.9261.2253.0946.9349.9959.1945.3742.2741.2041.22
YoY Growth--139.99%15.32%13.13%-6.12%-15.54%30.47%7.34%2.59%-0.05%0.05%
Dividend Yield--5.26%2.62%2.84%3.48%3.09%3.21%1.96%1.35%1.82%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,944.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,801.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,143.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,188.801,993.001,195.80
Cash Retained (M)6,143.006,143.006,143.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,188.80-1,993.00-1,195.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,954.204,150.004,947.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.6948.6948.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share60.6785.23101.60
LTM Dividend per Share201.29201.29201.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share60.6785.23101.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend261.96286.52302.89
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,249.75$8,916.92$13,443.46
Upside / Downside123.76%219.26%381.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,944.0016,980.3618,084.0819,259.5520,511.4221,844.6622,500.00
Payout Ratio61.47%67.18%72.88%78.59%84.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,801.0011,406.9213,180.1915,135.8017,289.9519,660.2020,812.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,279.8410,377.2810,474.72
Year 2 PV (M)10,704.2910,908.1811,113.99
Year 3 PV (M)11,077.9611,395.9611,720.00
Year 4 PV (M)11,404.2311,842.8112,293.91
Year 5 PV (M)11,686.3312,250.7812,836.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)178,722.90187,355.29196,318.05
Equity Value (M)233,875.55244,130.29254,757.51
Shares Outstanding (M)48.6948.6948.69
Fair Value$4,803.20$5,013.80$5,232.06
Upside / Downside71.97%79.51%87.33%

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