Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Golden Throat Holdings Group Company Limited (6896.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.63 - $142.66$133.69
Multi-Stage$21.37 - $23.36$22.34
Blended Fair Value$78.02
Current Price$4.00
Upside1,850.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.72%10.31%0.550.330.150.050.100.110.100.110.050.19
YoY Growth--66.03%114.10%207.83%-52.12%-1.95%4.73%-3.85%105.21%-72.38%-8.99%
Dividend Yield--17.97%10.82%9.09%3.87%9.31%10.03%9.15%6.64%1.91%4.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)530.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)403.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.0666.2939.77
Cash Retained (M)126.56126.56126.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.06-66.29-39.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.4960.2786.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)739.30739.30739.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.080.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.080.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.63$133.69$142.66
Upside / Downside1,365.72%3,242.31%3,466.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)530.32564.79601.51640.60682.24726.59748.39
Payout Ratio76.14%78.91%81.68%84.45%87.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)403.77445.67491.32541.02595.10653.93692.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)414.41418.34422.27
Year 2 PV (M)424.82432.91441.08
Year 3 PV (M)434.98447.47460.19
Year 4 PV (M)444.91462.02479.62
Year 5 PV (M)454.60476.56499.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,622.8814,280.8714,964.04
Equity Value (M)15,796.6116,518.1717,266.56
Shares Outstanding (M)739.30739.30739.30
Fair Value$21.37$22.34$23.36
Upside / Downside434.17%458.57%483.88%

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