Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Uni-Trend Technology (China) Co., Ltd. (688628.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.58 - $73.91$46.39
Multi-Stage$24.24 - $26.38$25.29
Blended Fair Value$35.84
Current Price$35.90
Upside-0.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS99.79%0.00%1.220.380.300.450.190.040.050.220.000.00
YoY Growth--222.19%26.56%-33.08%139.65%386.82%-21.75%-77.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.18%0.90%0.72%1.65%0.63%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.3820.8612.52
Cash Retained (M)20.8620.8620.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.38-20.86-12.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.53-0.018.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)110.76110.76110.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.110.000.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.110.000.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.321.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.58$46.39$73.91
Upside / Downside-12.03%29.21%105.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.92177.77189.32201.63214.74228.69235.55
Payout Ratio87.50%88.00%88.50%89.00%89.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.06156.44167.56179.45192.19205.82217.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.53%9.53%9.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)141.49142.83144.18
Year 2 PV (M)137.06139.67142.31
Year 3 PV (M)132.77136.58140.46
Year 4 PV (M)128.60133.55138.64
Year 5 PV (M)124.56130.58136.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,020.152,117.722,219.03
Equity Value (M)2,684.642,800.942,921.44
Shares Outstanding (M)110.76110.76110.76
Fair Value$24.24$25.29$26.38
Upside / Downside-32.48%-29.56%-26.53%

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