Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co., Ltd. (688366.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.77 - $80.93$50.97
Multi-Stage$26.80 - $29.16$27.96
Blended Fair Value$39.47
Current Price$51.96
Upside-24.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.56%13.96%1.130.300.530.380.540.350.350.370.250.22
YoY Growth--279.27%-43.79%38.65%-29.13%55.01%0.00%-6.71%46.46%17.88%-29.35%
Dividend Yield--1.91%0.41%0.73%0.55%0.68%0.69%0.37%0.40%0.27%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)384.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)343.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.8448.0328.82
Cash Retained (M)40.3640.3640.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.84-48.03-28.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.49-7.6711.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)230.32230.32230.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.77$50.97$80.93
Upside / Downside-33.09%-1.90%55.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)384.21409.18435.78464.10494.27526.39542.19
Payout Ratio89.50%89.60%89.70%89.80%89.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)343.85366.61390.88416.76444.34473.76501.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)331.51334.65337.80
Year 2 PV (M)319.62325.70331.85
Year 3 PV (M)308.15316.99326.01
Year 4 PV (M)297.09308.51320.27
Year 5 PV (M)286.43300.26314.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,629.514,853.115,085.28
Equity Value (M)6,172.306,439.246,715.82
Shares Outstanding (M)230.32230.32230.32
Fair Value$26.80$27.96$29.16
Upside / Downside-48.42%-46.19%-43.88%

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