Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (6862.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.32 - $117.02$63.32
Multi-Stage$28.49 - $31.05$29.75
Blended Fair Value$46.54
Current Price$13.59
Upside242.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS66.58%0.00%1.120.100.120.020.130.090.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth--996.34%-14.80%600.60%-86.81%48.58%2.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.51%0.81%0.61%0.12%0.26%0.31%0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,707.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,625.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,082.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,741.531,088.45653.07
Cash Retained (M)2,082.352,082.352,082.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,741.53-1,088.45-653.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.83993.901,429.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,415.005,415.005,415.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.180.26
LTM Dividend per Share1.221.221.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.180.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.32$63.32$117.02
Upside / Downside196.66%365.95%761.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,707.649,273.639,876.4210,518.3911,202.0811,930.2212,288.12
Payout Ratio76.09%78.87%81.65%84.43%87.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,625.287,314.008,064.258,881.139,770.1410,737.2011,366.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,655.246,718.326,781.40
Year 2 PV (M)6,677.006,804.186,932.56
Year 3 PV (M)6,691.066,883.137,078.85
Year 4 PV (M)6,697.866,955.447,220.38
Year 5 PV (M)6,697.847,021.357,357.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)120,863.79126,701.56132,762.75
Equity Value (M)154,282.79161,083.98168,133.18
Shares Outstanding (M)5,415.005,415.005,415.00
Fair Value$28.49$29.75$31.05
Upside / Downside109.65%118.89%128.47%

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