Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Cheerwin Group Limited (6601.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.37 - $3.46$2.89
Multi-Stage$4.26 - $4.68$4.46
Blended Fair Value$3.68
Current Price$2.55
Upside44.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.60%0.00%0.120.060.070.040.190.170.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--86.98%-12.62%63.86%-76.41%12.55%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.97%4.85%4.45%1.74%2.78%2.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)241.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)174.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.0951.9331.16
Cash Retained (M)174.39174.39174.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.09-51.93-31.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.30122.46143.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.331,333.331,333.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.37$2.89$3.46
Upside / Downside-7.24%13.48%35.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415.46411.30407.19403.12399.08395.09406.95
Payout Ratio58.02%64.42%70.81%77.21%83.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)241.07264.96288.35311.24333.65355.58376.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)242.12244.59247.06
Year 2 PV (M)240.78245.72250.71
Year 3 PV (M)237.50244.84252.34
Year 4 PV (M)232.65242.30252.24
Year 5 PV (M)226.57238.37250.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,502.454,736.904,981.02
Equity Value (M)5,682.085,952.736,234.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,333.331,333.331,333.33
Fair Value$4.26$4.46$4.68
Upside / Downside67.12%75.08%83.35%

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