Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PHC Holdings Corporation (6523.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$445.31 - $697.40$561.24
Multi-Stage$1,113.56 - $1,224.18$1,167.79
Blended Fair Value$864.51
Current Price$979.00
Upside-11.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%38.8771.4872.710.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---45.62%-1.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.26%6.10%4.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,825.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,297.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)528.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,165.00728.13436.88
Cash Retained (M)528.00528.00528.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,165.00-728.13-436.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-637.00-200.1391.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)126.47126.47126.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share-5.04-1.580.72
LTM Dividend per Share41.8841.8841.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share-5.04-1.580.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend36.8540.3042.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$445.31$561.24$697.40
Upside / Downside-54.51%-42.67%-28.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,825.005,766.755,709.085,651.995,595.475,539.525,705.70
Payout Ratio90.94%90.75%90.56%90.37%90.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,297.005,233.245,170.225,107.955,046.404,985.575,277.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,882.134,931.954,981.76
Year 2 PV (M)4,499.734,592.034,685.27
Year 3 PV (M)4,147.274,275.524,406.40
Year 4 PV (M)3,822.393,980.814,144.11
Year 5 PV (M)3,522.963,706.403,897.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)119,955.18126,201.52132,705.41
Equity Value (M)140,829.65147,688.24154,820.36
Shares Outstanding (M)126.47126.47126.47
Fair Value$1,113.56$1,167.79$1,224.18
Upside / Downside13.74%19.28%25.04%

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