Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Taiwan Hopax Chems.Mfg.Co.,Ltd. (6509.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.08 - $211.96$107.90
Multi-Stage$45.09 - $49.22$47.12
Blended Fair Value$77.51
Current Price$34.15
Upside126.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.46%10.04%1.051.161.050.840.600.510.340.390.480.32
YoY Growth---9.42%10.40%25.21%40.48%16.67%50.00%-13.43%-17.56%47.59%-19.72%
Dividend Yield--3.17%3.06%2.36%1.47%2.23%3.40%1.81%2.15%2.68%1.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)522.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)259.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)263.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.4765.2939.18
Cash Retained (M)263.00263.00263.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.47-65.29-39.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.54197.71223.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.05206.05206.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.961.09
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.961.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.032.222.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.69%8.69%8.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$67.08$107.90$211.96
Upside / Downside96.44%215.97%520.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)522.34556.29592.45630.96671.97715.65737.12
Payout Ratio49.65%57.72%65.79%73.86%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)259.34321.09389.77466.03550.55644.09681.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.69%8.69%8.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)292.64295.42298.19
Year 2 PV (M)323.77329.94336.17
Year 3 PV (M)352.82362.95373.27
Year 4 PV (M)379.89394.50409.53
Year 5 PV (M)405.07424.63444.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,537.137,901.178,279.15
Equity Value (M)9,291.329,708.6110,141.25
Shares Outstanding (M)206.05206.05206.05
Fair Value$45.09$47.12$49.22
Upside / Downside32.04%37.97%44.12%

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