Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Bank of Jiujiang Co., Ltd. (6190.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.10 - $16.04$12.04
Multi-Stage$20.55 - $22.64$21.57
Blended Fair Value$16.81
Current Price$3.51
Upside378.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.73%5.03%0.180.210.200.090.110.070.070.090.060.08
YoY Growth---13.78%1.80%136.80%-18.94%46.06%-1.40%-17.00%39.29%-21.13%-26.16%
Dividend Yield--3.64%3.28%2.41%0.97%1.15%0.76%0.79%1.01%0.67%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,967.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)195.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,771.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)393.43245.89147.53
Cash Retained (M)1,771.541,771.541,771.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-393.43-245.89-147.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,378.111,525.651,624.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,847.372,847.372,847.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.540.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate-0.46%0.54%1.54%
Fair Value$9.10$12.04$16.04
Upside / Downside159.25%243.16%356.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,967.131,977.851,988.631,999.462,010.362,021.322,081.96
Payout Ratio9.94%25.95%41.97%57.98%73.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)195.59513.34834.541,159.231,487.441,819.181,925.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate-0.46%0.54%1.54%
Year 1 PV (M)481.32486.15490.99
Year 2 PV (M)733.69748.50763.47
Year 3 PV (M)955.58984.671,014.34
Year 4 PV (M)1,149.651,196.551,244.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,318.371,385.931,456.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,864.5656,625.0159,497.49
Equity Value (M)58,503.1761,426.8264,467.39
Shares Outstanding (M)2,847.372,847.372,847.37
Fair Value$20.55$21.57$22.64
Upside / Downside485.37%514.62%545.04%

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