Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Feihe Limited (6186.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.64 - $8.40$6.95
Multi-Stage$11.21 - $12.30$11.74
Blended Fair Value$9.35
Current Price$5.21
Upside79.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.78%0.00%0.290.280.240.370.300.300.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.83%19.73%-37.14%26.36%-0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.60%7.45%4.02%4.39%1.94%3.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,264.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,086.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,177.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,252.87783.04469.82
Cash Retained (M)1,177.521,177.521,177.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,252.87-783.04-469.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-75.34394.48707.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,063.039,063.039,063.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.64$6.95$8.40
Upside / Downside8.20%33.44%61.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,264.336,201.686,139.676,078.276,017.495,957.316,136.03
Payout Ratio81.20%82.96%84.72%86.48%88.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,086.805,145.055,201.625,256.555,309.865,361.585,675.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,732.804,781.094,829.39
Year 2 PV (M)4,401.454,491.744,582.94
Year 3 PV (M)4,091.544,218.074,347.19
Year 4 PV (M)3,801.873,959.444,121.86
Year 5 PV (M)3,531.313,715.193,906.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)81,048.1285,268.4889,662.85
Equity Value (M)101,607.08106,434.01111,450.87
Shares Outstanding (M)9,063.039,063.039,063.03
Fair Value$11.21$11.74$12.30
Upside / Downside115.19%125.41%136.03%

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