Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ATE Energy International Co., Ltd. (6179.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.76 - $23.01$18.57
Multi-Stage$35.37 - $38.92$37.11
Blended Fair Value$27.84
Current Price$32.00
Upside-13.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-15.36%0.00%0.270.000.801.160.540.620.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-31.15%115.58%-13.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%0.00%2.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)186.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.3323.3314.00
Cash Retained (M)71.0671.0671.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.33-23.33-14.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.7347.7357.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.59120.59120.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.400.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.400.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.22%6.22%6.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.76$18.57$23.01
Upside / Downside-53.87%-41.98%-28.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)186.65184.78182.94181.11179.30177.50182.83
Payout Ratio61.93%67.54%73.16%78.77%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.59124.81133.83142.66151.30159.75169.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.22%6.22%6.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)116.31117.50118.68
Year 2 PV (M)116.23118.61121.02
Year 3 PV (M)115.46119.03122.68
Year 4 PV (M)114.12118.85123.72
Year 5 PV (M)112.29118.14124.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,690.333,882.504,082.58
Equity Value (M)4,264.744,474.634,692.92
Shares Outstanding (M)120.59120.59120.59
Fair Value$35.37$37.11$38.92
Upside / Downside10.52%15.96%21.61%

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