Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SY Holdings Group Limited (6069.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.78 - $107.90$38.86
Multi-Stage$19.24 - $21.04$20.12
Blended Fair Value$29.49
Current Price$10.73
Upside174.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.26%0.00%0.250.070.070.050.040.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--255.83%4.82%32.82%16.72%23.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.66%1.57%1.19%0.79%0.84%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)673.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)658.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.6884.1850.51
Cash Retained (M)15.3715.3715.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.68-84.18-50.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-119.31-68.80-35.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)979.48979.48979.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.07-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.07-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.55%6.55%6.55%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$21.78$38.86$107.90
Upside / Downside103.00%262.17%905.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)673.41706.61741.44778.00816.35856.60882.30
Payout Ratio97.72%96.17%94.63%93.09%91.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)658.03679.57701.63724.21747.32770.94816.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.55%6.55%6.55%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)631.69637.77643.84
Year 2 PV (M)606.24617.97629.80
Year 3 PV (M)581.67598.62615.90
Year 4 PV (M)557.93579.72602.14
Year 5 PV (M)535.02561.26588.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,933.8316,715.2917,527.11
Equity Value (M)18,846.3819,710.6220,607.31
Shares Outstanding (M)979.48979.48979.48
Fair Value$19.24$20.12$21.04
Upside / Downside79.32%87.54%96.08%

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