Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co., Ltd (605090.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.16 - $253.87$105.19
Multi-Stage$38.55 - $42.11$40.30
Blended Fair Value$72.75
Current Price$34.69
Upside109.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.91%0.00%0.830.580.320.130.020.070.200.200.180.21
YoY Growth--41.55%82.03%140.38%707.63%-77.06%-64.39%0.21%12.27%-14.18%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.11%1.43%0.67%0.05%0.23%0.00%0.66%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,390.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)585.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)804.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)278.03173.77104.26
Cash Retained (M)804.32804.32804.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-278.03-173.77-104.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)526.30630.55700.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)686.97686.97686.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.921.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.921.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$61.16$105.19$253.87
Upside / Downside76.30%203.24%631.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,390.131,480.491,576.721,679.201,788.351,904.591,961.73
Payout Ratio42.14%51.71%61.28%70.86%80.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)585.81765.59966.281,189.821,438.341,714.141,814.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)700.33706.97713.61
Year 2 PV (M)808.56823.96839.50
Year 3 PV (M)910.74936.88963.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,007.111,045.841,085.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,097.911,150.941,205.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,959.9623,020.6424,121.91
Equity Value (M)26,484.6127,685.2228,930.21
Shares Outstanding (M)686.97686.97686.97
Fair Value$38.55$40.30$42.11
Upside / Downside11.14%16.17%21.40%

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