Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Huakang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (605077.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.81 - $99.58$39.67
Multi-Stage$16.14 - $17.63$16.87
Blended Fair Value$28.27
Current Price$18.81
Upside50.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS30.07%0.00%0.590.520.330.360.180.160.140.070.070.00
YoY Growth--13.56%54.62%-6.98%97.84%15.22%13.55%98.22%2.74%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.88%3.35%1.64%1.92%0.57%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)249.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)177.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.9931.2418.75
Cash Retained (M)72.5972.5972.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.99-31.24-18.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.6041.3553.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)335.84335.84335.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate4.94%5.94%6.94%
Fair Value$22.81$39.67$99.58
Upside / Downside21.26%110.88%429.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)249.95264.81280.55297.22314.89333.61343.61
Payout Ratio70.96%74.77%78.57%82.38%86.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)177.36197.99220.44244.86271.41300.25317.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate4.94%5.94%6.94%
Year 1 PV (M)182.12183.86185.59
Year 2 PV (M)186.53190.10193.71
Year 3 PV (M)190.60196.10201.70
Year 4 PV (M)194.34201.85209.58
Year 5 PV (M)197.76207.37217.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,470.384,687.474,912.91
Equity Value (M)5,421.745,666.755,920.84
Shares Outstanding (M)335.84335.84335.84
Fair Value$16.14$16.87$17.63
Upside / Downside-14.18%-10.30%-6.27%

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