Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Yongjin Technology Group Co., Ltd. (603995.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.90 - $353.15$255.09
Multi-Stage$44.65 - $48.78$46.67
Blended Fair Value$150.88
Current Price$17.59
Upside757.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.51%0.00%0.780.500.490.430.430.140.180.090.150.13
YoY Growth--54.84%2.00%14.28%1.07%211.12%-23.82%90.24%-35.74%14.48%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.86%3.06%1.68%1.14%1.98%0.95%0.81%0.42%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)671.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)463.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.2483.9050.34
Cash Retained (M)207.40207.40207.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.24-83.90-50.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.16123.50157.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)377.99377.99377.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.330.42
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.330.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.551.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.90$255.09$353.15
Upside / Downside416.79%1,350.19%1,907.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)671.20714.83761.29810.77863.47919.60947.19
Payout Ratio69.10%73.28%77.46%81.64%85.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)463.80523.83589.70661.92741.04827.64876.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.15%7.15%7.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)484.29488.88493.47
Year 2 PV (M)504.04513.64523.33
Year 3 PV (M)523.06538.08553.38
Year 4 PV (M)541.38562.20583.62
Year 5 PV (M)559.01586.01614.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,264.1614,953.1215,668.46
Equity Value (M)16,875.9417,641.9318,436.29
Shares Outstanding (M)377.99377.99377.99
Fair Value$44.65$46.67$48.78
Upside / Downside153.82%165.34%177.29%

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