Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Jianye Chemical Co., Ltd. (603948.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.15 - $60.87$39.31
Multi-Stage$21.14 - $23.02$22.07
Blended Fair Value$30.69
Current Price$25.36
Upside21.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS114.22%0.00%1.011.940.550.200.250.020.370.080.100.15
YoY Growth---47.92%254.52%175.00%-20.59%1,018.81%-93.96%341.65%-16.44%-31.99%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.59%9.01%2.44%0.69%1.39%0.09%1.81%0.41%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)218.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.6927.3116.39
Cash Retained (M)53.9353.9353.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.69-27.31-16.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.2426.6237.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.92160.92160.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.170.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.170.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.091.191.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Fair Value$27.15$39.31$60.87
Upside / Downside7.08%54.99%140.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)218.47232.45247.32263.14279.98297.89306.83
Payout Ratio75.31%78.25%81.19%84.13%87.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.54181.89200.80221.37243.76268.11283.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.40%6.40%7.40%
Year 1 PV (M)164.38165.94167.50
Year 2 PV (M)163.99167.12170.27
Year 3 PV (M)163.39168.08172.87
Year 4 PV (M)162.59168.85175.29
Year 5 PV (M)161.61169.43177.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,586.772,711.832,841.69
Equity Value (M)3,402.733,551.253,705.16
Shares Outstanding (M)160.92160.92160.92
Fair Value$21.14$22.07$23.02
Upside / Downside-16.62%-12.98%-9.21%

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