Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co., Ltd. (603939.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.34 - $69.75$42.32
Multi-Stage$20.46 - $22.32$21.37
Blended Fair Value$31.85
Current Price$24.65
Upside29.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.99%33.24%0.660.250.180.170.130.120.140.040.000.06
YoY Growth--163.00%36.96%10.91%29.17%4.16%-14.21%239.49%0.00%-100.00%66.67%
Dividend Yield--2.67%0.76%0.54%0.70%0.32%0.41%0.74%0.22%0.00%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,642.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)824.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)818.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)328.53205.33123.20
Cash Retained (M)818.33818.33818.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-328.53-205.33-123.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)489.81613.00695.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,275.131,275.131,275.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.480.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.480.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.131.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.34$42.32$69.75
Upside / Downside14.97%71.70%182.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,642.631,749.401,863.111,984.222,113.192,250.552,318.06
Payout Ratio50.18%58.15%66.11%74.07%82.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)824.301,017.191,231.681,469.761,733.582,025.492,144.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)921.60930.33939.07
Year 2 PV (M)1,011.061,030.321,049.75
Year 3 PV (M)1,093.101,124.481,156.46
Year 4 PV (M)1,168.151,213.071,259.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,236.581,296.301,358.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,659.2921,657.1422,693.18
Equity Value (M)26,089.7727,251.6528,456.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,275.131,275.131,275.13
Fair Value$20.46$21.37$22.32
Upside / Downside-17.00%-13.30%-9.47%

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