Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd. (603611.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.46 - $121.21$69.62
Multi-Stage$32.10 - $35.01$33.53
Blended Fair Value$51.58
Current Price$24.55
Upside110.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.35%20.25%0.780.690.700.410.090.580.390.420.160.17
YoY Growth--14.28%-1.30%68.11%338.03%-83.62%47.28%-7.21%155.74%-2.97%37.02%
Dividend Yield--4.31%3.41%3.36%2.62%0.74%3.58%2.20%2.81%0.69%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)495.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)260.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.0861.9237.15
Cash Retained (M)234.58234.58234.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.08-61.92-37.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.51172.66197.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)256.63256.63256.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.670.77
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.670.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.691.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.46$69.62$121.21
Upside / Downside85.18%183.60%393.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)495.38527.58561.88598.40637.29678.72699.08
Payout Ratio52.65%60.12%67.59%75.06%82.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)260.80317.17379.76449.15525.95610.85646.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)288.02290.75293.48
Year 2 PV (M)313.18319.14325.17
Year 3 PV (M)336.37346.03355.87
Year 4 PV (M)357.70371.46385.61
Year 5 PV (M)377.27395.49414.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,564.736,881.817,211.03
Equity Value (M)8,237.288,604.688,985.56
Shares Outstanding (M)256.63256.63256.63
Fair Value$32.10$33.53$35.01
Upside / Downside30.75%36.58%42.62%

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