Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AUPU Intelligent Technology Corporation Limited (603551.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.46 - $9.64$7.97
Multi-Stage$9.01 - $9.83$9.41
Blended Fair Value$8.69
Current Price$12.15
Upside-28.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS39.89%0.00%1.100.750.610.420.340.200.630.360.660.77
YoY Growth--45.80%22.80%46.05%22.90%66.67%-67.62%74.71%-44.78%-15.30%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.36%6.89%5.33%4.53%2.83%1.16%2.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)208.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0536.9122.15
Cash Retained (M)86.8986.8986.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.05-36.91-22.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.8449.9864.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)386.90386.90386.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.130.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.130.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.49%1.49%2.49%
Fair Value$6.46$7.97$9.64
Upside / Downside-46.87%-34.40%-20.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.27299.68304.15308.69313.30317.97327.51
Payout Ratio70.57%74.46%78.34%82.23%86.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)208.38223.14238.28253.83269.80286.18302.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.49%1.49%2.49%
Year 1 PV (M)200.86202.86204.86
Year 2 PV (M)193.08196.94200.84
Year 3 PV (M)185.15190.73196.42
Year 4 PV (M)177.14184.30191.67
Year 5 PV (M)169.14177.72186.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,559.232,689.122,824.24
Equity Value (M)3,484.593,641.673,804.68
Shares Outstanding (M)386.90386.90386.90
Fair Value$9.01$9.41$9.83
Upside / Downside-25.87%-22.53%-19.06%

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