Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Henan Thinker Automatic Equipment Co., Ltd. (603508.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.36 - $64.51$43.13
Multi-Stage$24.27 - $26.39$25.31
Blended Fair Value$34.22
Current Price$33.50
Upside2.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS42.74%112.20%1.080.540.600.230.240.180.110.080.060.07
YoY Growth--98.11%-10.04%166.54%-4.66%30.83%60.38%35.11%39.53%-10.91%11,498.40%
Dividend Yield--4.63%2.62%3.68%1.55%1.62%0.69%0.49%0.45%0.19%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)617.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)548.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.4377.1446.29
Cash Retained (M)68.7768.7768.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.43-77.14-46.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-54.66-8.3722.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)382.02382.02382.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.441.441.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.291.411.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.36$43.13$64.51
Upside / Downside-9.36%28.75%92.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)617.15657.26699.99745.48793.94845.55870.91
Payout Ratio88.86%89.09%89.31%89.54%89.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)548.38585.53625.19667.53712.73760.99805.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)527.35532.34537.34
Year 2 PV (M)507.11516.77526.52
Year 3 PV (M)487.66501.66515.92
Year 4 PV (M)468.94486.98505.53
Year 5 PV (M)450.94472.73495.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,829.127,158.977,501.44
Equity Value (M)9,271.129,669.4510,082.10
Shares Outstanding (M)382.02382.02382.02
Fair Value$24.27$25.31$26.39
Upside / Downside-27.56%-24.44%-21.22%

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