Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd (603323.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.63 - $209.50$135.94
Multi-Stage$25.10 - $27.47$26.26
Blended Fair Value$81.10
Current Price$4.97
Upside1,531.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.05%9.43%0.320.280.290.290.150.090.120.030.050.06
YoY Growth--15.18%-3.93%0.26%91.14%75.44%-28.04%246.27%-32.84%-19.57%-50.82%
Dividend Yield--6.63%6.60%6.77%5.95%3.46%2.13%2.05%0.58%0.48%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,026.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)493.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,532.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)405.31253.32151.99
Cash Retained (M)1,532.811,532.811,532.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-405.31-253.32-151.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,127.501,279.491,380.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,923.771,923.771,923.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.63$135.94$209.50
Upside / Downside938.77%2,635.16%4,115.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,026.542,158.262,298.552,447.952,607.072,776.532,859.83
Payout Ratio24.36%37.49%50.62%63.75%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)493.73809.151,163.481,560.462,004.132,498.882,645.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.22%7.22%7.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)747.56754.64761.73
Year 2 PV (M)993.101,012.021,031.11
Year 3 PV (M)1,230.571,265.901,301.89
Year 4 PV (M)1,460.151,516.311,574.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,682.041,763.291,847.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,173.6544,210.6646,325.62
Equity Value (M)48,287.0850,522.8152,842.06
Shares Outstanding (M)1,923.771,923.771,923.77
Fair Value$25.10$26.26$27.47
Upside / Downside405.03%428.42%452.67%

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