Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper Joint Stock Co., Ltd. (603165.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.39 - $149.28$139.90
Multi-Stage$24.30 - $26.57$25.42
Blended Fair Value$82.66
Current Price$13.63
Upside506.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.14%34.16%0.610.500.380.670.280.300.280.110.150.18
YoY Growth--22.48%31.70%-43.79%142.82%-8.10%7.99%159.26%-28.62%-18.45%472.91%
Dividend Yield--4.93%4.12%2.61%3.75%2.04%2.62%1.95%0.44%0.71%2.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.7026.0615.64
Cash Retained (M)54.5654.5654.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.70-26.06-15.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8628.5038.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)277.75277.75277.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.100.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.39$139.90$149.28
Upside / Downside519.18%926.39%995.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.48222.03236.47251.84268.21285.64294.21
Payout Ratio73.83%77.06%80.30%83.53%86.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.93171.11189.88210.37232.71257.08272.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)159.53161.04162.56
Year 2 PV (M)165.05168.20171.37
Year 3 PV (M)170.49175.38180.37
Year 4 PV (M)175.83182.60189.55
Year 5 PV (M)181.10189.85198.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,897.656,182.516,478.27
Equity Value (M)6,749.657,059.577,381.04
Shares Outstanding (M)277.75277.75277.75
Fair Value$24.30$25.42$26.57
Upside / Downside78.29%86.48%94.97%

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