Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Industry

Sector

Shanxi Huaxiang Group Co., Ltd. (603112.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.13 - $214.44$75.81
Multi-Stage$22.67 - $24.78$23.70
Blended Fair Value$49.76
Current Price$16.70
Upside197.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS55.44%0.00%0.630.220.240.170.010.070.070.020.060.00
YoY Growth--191.23%-9.58%43.48%1,307.67%-82.94%-2.90%271.51%-66.57%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.05%1.81%2.21%1.10%0.10%0.62%0.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)535.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)231.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)303.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.0266.8940.13
Cash Retained (M)303.98303.98303.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.02-66.89-40.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)196.95237.09263.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)496.27496.27496.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate7.83%7.83%7.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.13$75.81$214.44
Upside / Downside134.34%353.95%1,184.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)535.11569.89606.94646.39688.40733.15755.14
Payout Ratio43.19%52.55%61.92%71.28%80.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)231.13299.51375.79460.73555.12659.83698.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.83%7.83%7.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)275.16277.77280.38
Year 2 PV (M)317.18323.23329.32
Year 3 PV (M)357.26367.52377.97
Year 4 PV (M)395.47410.68426.32
Year 5 PV (M)431.86452.72474.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,474.189,931.7810,406.90
Equity Value (M)11,251.1211,763.7012,295.27
Shares Outstanding (M)496.27496.27496.27
Fair Value$22.67$23.70$24.78
Upside / Downside35.76%41.94%48.36%

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