Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited (603043.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.15 - $58.51$32.75
Multi-Stage$14.86 - $16.20$15.52
Blended Fair Value$24.13
Current Price$16.13
Upside49.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.10%7.98%0.500.430.420.280.220.280.250.340.310.14
YoY Growth--16.39%4.01%48.55%28.06%-23.13%14.29%-27.38%10.00%122.22%-40.00%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.43%1.41%1.35%0.81%1.44%1.15%2.63%2.30%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)495.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)286.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)208.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.0561.9137.14
Cash Retained (M)208.90208.90208.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.05-61.91-37.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.85146.99171.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)567.37567.37567.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.81
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.15$32.75$58.51
Upside / Downside31.11%103.05%262.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)495.26527.45561.73598.25637.13678.55698.90
Payout Ratio57.82%64.26%70.69%77.13%83.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)286.36338.92397.10461.42532.41610.69646.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)308.06310.98313.90
Year 2 PV (M)328.08334.33340.64
Year 3 PV (M)346.51356.46366.59
Year 4 PV (M)363.43377.40391.78
Year 5 PV (M)378.91397.21416.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,703.557,027.337,363.51
Equity Value (M)8,428.548,803.729,192.63
Shares Outstanding (M)567.37567.37567.37
Fair Value$14.86$15.52$16.20
Upside / Downside-7.90%-3.80%0.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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