Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xilinmen Furniture Co.,Ltd (603008.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.87 - $172.78$56.31
Multi-Stage$19.50 - $21.26$20.37
Blended Fair Value$38.34
Current Price$17.62
Upside117.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.07%17.20%0.690.250.500.440.240.230.300.160.240.12
YoY Growth--181.13%-51.37%14.88%86.11%4.69%-25.61%86.53%-33.05%105.87%-16.45%
Dividend Yield--4.02%1.43%1.61%1.52%0.89%1.87%2.59%0.92%1.20%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)346.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.3143.3225.99
Cash Retained (M)26.1426.1426.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.31-43.32-25.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-43.16-17.170.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)374.02374.02374.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.050.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.050.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.87$56.31$172.78
Upside / Downside75.20%219.60%880.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)346.54369.07393.06418.61445.82474.79489.04
Payout Ratio92.46%91.96%91.47%90.98%90.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.40339.41359.54380.86403.42427.31452.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)311.22314.17317.12
Year 2 PV (M)302.30308.06313.87
Year 3 PV (M)293.63302.06310.65
Year 4 PV (M)285.20296.16307.44
Year 5 PV (M)277.00290.38304.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,825.926,107.316,399.47
Equity Value (M)7,295.267,618.147,952.83
Shares Outstanding (M)374.02374.02374.02
Fair Value$19.50$20.37$21.26
Upside / Downside10.70%15.60%20.68%

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