DDM Analysis: 601998.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.96 - $19.13	$15.21
Multi-Stage	$32.83 - $36.15	$34.45
Blended Fair Value	$24.83
Current Price	$8.50
Upside	192.14%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.05%	9.76%	0.50	0.36	0.33	0.26	0.25	0.22	0.24	0.20	0.17	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	39.24%	7.27%	29.77%	4.98%	12.67%	-7.45%	18.99%	14.24%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.03%	5.75%	6.17%	5.07%	4.51%	4.21%	3.68%	3.07%	2.59%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	69,564.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	47,918.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21,646.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13,912.80	8,695.50	5,217.30
Cash Retained (M)	21,646.00	21,646.00	21,646.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13,912.80	-8,695.50	-5,217.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7,733.20	12,950.50	16,428.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	59,830.74	59,830.74	59,830.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.22	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.80	0.80	0.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.22	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.93	1.02	1.08
WACC / Discount Rate	5.62%	5.62%	5.62%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$11.96	$15.21	$19.13
Upside / Downside	40.69%	78.93%	125.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	69,564.00	68,868.36	68,179.68	67,497.88	66,822.90	66,154.67	68,139.31
Payout Ratio	68.88%	73.11%	77.33%	81.55%	85.78%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	47,918.00	50,347.36	52,723.34	55,046.77	57,318.46	59,539.20	63,028.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.62%	5.62%	5.62%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	47,185.88	47,667.37	48,148.86
Year 2 PV (M)	46,309.88	47,259.80	48,219.37
Year 3 PV (M)	45,314.57	46,715.96	48,145.94
Year 4 PV (M)	44,221.75	46,054.53	47,943.70
Year 5 PV (M)	43,050.66	45,292.40	47,626.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,737,950.88	1,828,450.02	1,922,680.49
Equity Value (M)	1,964,033.62	2,061,440.08	2,162,764.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	59,830.74	59,830.74	59,830.74
Fair Value	$32.83	$34.45	$36.15
Upside / Downside	286.19%	305.35%	325.27%

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China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited (601998.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener