Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co., Ltd. (601686.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.37 - $6.35$5.33
Multi-Stage$7.65 - $8.39$8.02
Blended Fair Value$6.67
Current Price$6.30
Upside5.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS31.73%0.00%0.360.150.150.450.220.090.090.110.030.00
YoY Growth--135.41%-0.34%-66.21%108.47%140.00%1.33%-17.03%264.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.62%2.47%2.47%5.46%1.70%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)825.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)463.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)165.17103.2361.94
Cash Retained (M)362.65362.65362.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-165.17-103.23-61.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)197.48259.42300.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,399.131,399.131,399.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.37$5.33$6.35
Upside / Downside-30.71%-15.46%0.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)825.84817.58809.40801.31793.30785.36808.93
Payout Ratio56.09%62.87%69.65%76.43%83.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)463.19514.01563.77612.48660.16706.83748.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)468.52473.30478.08
Year 2 PV (M)468.40478.01487.72
Year 3 PV (M)463.84478.19492.83
Year 4 PV (M)455.71474.60494.07
Year 5 PV (M)444.75467.91492.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,407.028,844.799,300.61
Equity Value (M)10,708.2511,216.8011,745.33
Shares Outstanding (M)1,399.131,399.131,399.13
Fair Value$7.65$8.02$8.39
Upside / Downside21.48%27.25%33.25%

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