DDM Analysis: 601668.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$98.77 - $214.11	$200.65
Multi-Stage	$32.69 - $35.77	$34.20
Blended Fair Value	$117.43
Current Price	$5.45
Upside	2,054.60%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	44.15%	10.30%	1.06	0.26	0.25	0.22	0.19	0.17	0.63	0.60	0.56	0.46
YoY Growth	-	-	314.32%	1.06%	16.42%	16.01%	10.08%	-73.02%	5.82%	6.50%	20.37%	17.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	20.12%	4.85%	4.36%	3.99%	3.61%	3.23%	10.10%	9.62%	8.51%	11.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	44,666.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24,474.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20,191.63

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8,933.29	5,583.31	3,349.98
Cash Retained (M)	20,191.63	20,191.63	20,191.63
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8,933.29	-5,583.31	-3,349.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)	11,258.34	14,608.32	16,841.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	41,488.80	41,488.80	41,488.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.35	0.41
LTM Dividend per Share	0.59	0.59	0.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.35	0.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.86	0.94	1.00
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$98.77	$200.65	$214.11
Upside / Downside	1,712.30%	3,581.64%	3,828.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	44,666.44	47,569.76	50,661.79	53,954.81	57,461.87	61,196.89	63,032.80
Payout Ratio	54.79%	61.84%	68.88%	75.92%	82.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24,474.81	29,415.10	34,894.21	40,961.33	47,669.75	55,077.20	58,305.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	27,381.05	27,640.58	27,900.12
Year 2 PV (M)	30,235.21	30,811.10	31,392.43
Year 3 PV (M)	33,037.97	33,986.38	34,952.76
Year 4 PV (M)	35,790.02	37,166.41	38,582.11
Year 5 PV (M)	38,492.03	40,351.21	42,281.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,191,479.79	1,249,028.71	1,308,780.16
Equity Value (M)	1,356,416.07	1,418,984.38	1,483,889.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	41,488.80	41,488.80	41,488.80
Fair Value	$32.69	$34.20	$35.77
Upside / Downside	499.88%	527.55%	556.26%

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China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited (601668.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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