Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd (601528.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.71 - $204.22$63.93
Multi-Stage$20.39 - $22.31$21.33
Blended Fair Value$42.63
Current Price$5.31
Upside702.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.90%12.46%0.270.230.190.100.190.200.190.160.130.11
YoY Growth--15.60%22.64%84.04%-44.59%-7.89%8.69%15.04%24.07%18.32%32.41%
Dividend Yield--5.10%4.66%3.40%1.42%2.08%2.26%2.08%1.81%1.46%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,006.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)439.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,566.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.21250.75150.45
Cash Retained (M)1,566.131,566.131,566.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.21-250.75-150.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,164.921,315.381,415.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,953.481,953.481,953.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.71$63.93$204.22
Upside / Downside553.69%1,103.90%3,746.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,006.032,136.422,275.292,423.182,580.692,748.432,830.89
Payout Ratio21.93%35.54%49.16%62.77%76.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)439.90759.351,118.471,521.071,971.282,473.592,618.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)696.52703.12709.72
Year 2 PV (M)941.04958.96977.06
Year 3 PV (M)1,173.881,207.581,241.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,395.451,449.111,504.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,606.151,683.721,764.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,026.6335,670.1337,376.53
Equity Value (M)39,839.6641,672.6343,573.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,953.481,953.481,953.48
Fair Value$20.39$21.33$22.31
Upside / Downside284.07%301.74%320.07%

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