DDM Analysis: 601398.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.65 - $19.00	$14.94
Multi-Stage	$20.08 - $22.05	$21.04
Blended Fair Value	$17.99
Current Price	$7.30
Upside	146.43%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.33%	5.55%	0.51	0.49	0.42	0.38	0.37	0.34	0.33	0.30	0.29	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	2.87%	18.76%	10.99%	2.42%	7.41%	4.93%	9.61%	1.71%	-2.38%	0.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.39%	9.35%	9.34%	7.87%	6.62%	6.63%	5.77%	4.87%	6.03%	6.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	366,746.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	159,072.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	207,674.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	73,349.20	45,843.25	27,505.95
Cash Retained (M)	207,674.00	207,674.00	207,674.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-73,349.20	-45,843.25	-27,505.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	134,324.80	161,830.75	180,168.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	348,222.20	348,222.20	348,222.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.46	0.52
LTM Dividend per Share	0.46	0.46	0.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.46	0.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.84	0.92	0.97
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	-0.08%	0.92%	1.92%
Fair Value	$11.65	$14.94	$19.00
Upside / Downside	59.58%	104.59%	160.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	366,746.00	370,115.21	373,515.37	376,946.77	380,409.69	383,904.42	395,421.55
Payout Ratio	43.37%	52.70%	62.02%	71.35%	80.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	159,072.00	195,047.42	231,670.42	268,949.84	306,894.67	345,513.98	365,764.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	-0.08%	0.92%	1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)	180,235.75	182,039.57	183,843.40
Year 2 PV (M)	197,820.83	201,800.28	205,819.36
Year 3 PV (M)	212,213.72	218,649.29	225,213.68
Year 4 PV (M)	223,765.04	232,858.30	242,225.94
Year 5 PV (M)	232,792.63	244,677.25	257,042.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,944,518.12	6,248,000.03	6,563,752.06
Equity Value (M)	6,991,346.09	7,328,024.73	7,677,896.83
Shares Outstanding (M)	348,222.20	348,222.20	348,222.20
Fair Value	$20.08	$21.04	$22.05
Upside / Downside	175.03%	188.28%	202.04%

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Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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