Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Xi'an Shaangu Power Co., Ltd. (601369.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.48 - $35.90$20.63
Multi-Stage$9.35 - $10.21$9.78
Blended Fair Value$15.20
Current Price$8.41
Upside80.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.86%6.50%0.620.390.340.310.250.230.150.150.200.24
YoY Growth--58.10%17.41%7.36%25.06%7.80%50.35%1.53%-23.77%-17.76%-26.96%
Dividend Yield--7.08%4.34%3.19%3.58%2.85%4.16%2.23%1.94%2.63%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)992.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)372.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)620.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)198.58124.1174.47
Cash Retained (M)620.06620.06620.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-198.58-124.11-74.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)421.48495.95545.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,734.201,734.201,734.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.48$20.63$35.90
Upside / Downside60.23%145.33%326.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)992.901,057.441,126.171,199.371,277.331,360.361,401.17
Payout Ratio37.55%48.04%58.53%69.02%79.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)372.84507.99659.15827.811,015.611,224.321,296.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.09%9.09%9.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)461.31465.68470.06
Year 2 PV (M)543.57553.92564.37
Year 3 PV (M)619.91637.71655.84
Year 4 PV (M)690.66717.22744.54
Year 5 PV (M)756.08792.60830.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,151.5513,786.7814,446.31
Equity Value (M)16,223.0716,953.9017,711.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,734.201,734.201,734.20
Fair Value$9.35$9.78$10.21
Upside / Downside11.23%16.24%21.44%

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