DDM Analysis: 601319.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$32.57 - $148.74	$57.17
Multi-Stage	$20.21 - $22.08	$21.13
Blended Fair Value	$39.15
Current Price	$8.71
Upside	349.46%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	42.48%	24.44%	0.27	0.34	0.22	0.21	0.23	0.05	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.57%	54.89%	4.06%	-8.78%	402.72%	-38.04%	13.07%	13.90%	44.99%	31.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.93%	6.37%	4.19%	4.58%	3.87%	0.73%	0.75%	1.36%	1.19%	0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	45,994.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19,445.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	26,549.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9,198.80	5,749.25	3,449.55
Cash Retained (M)	26,549.00	26,549.00	26,549.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9,198.80	-5,749.25	-3,449.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17,350.20	20,799.75	23,099.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	44,223.99	44,223.99	44,223.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.47	0.52
LTM Dividend per Share	0.44	0.44	0.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.47	0.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.83	0.91	0.96
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$32.57	$57.17	$148.74
Upside / Downside	273.90%	556.35%	1,607.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	45,994.00	48,983.61	52,167.54	55,558.44	59,169.73	63,015.77	64,906.24
Payout Ratio	42.28%	51.82%	61.37%	70.91%	80.46%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19,445.00	25,384.19	32,013.32	39,396.99	47,605.28	56,714.19	60,038.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	23,241.16	23,461.45	23,681.75
Year 2 PV (M)	26,836.11	27,347.27	27,863.24
Year 3 PV (M)	30,237.53	31,105.55	31,990.01
Year 4 PV (M)	33,452.83	34,739.34	36,062.59
Year 5 PV (M)	36,489.17	38,251.61	40,081.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	743,515.14	779,427.20	816,713.70
Equity Value (M)	893,771.95	934,332.42	976,392.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	44,223.99	44,223.99	44,223.99
Fair Value	$20.21	$21.13	$22.08
Upside / Downside	132.03%	142.56%	153.48%

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The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited (601319.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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