Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. (601298.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.21 - $39.26$25.06
Multi-Stage$12.73 - $13.89$13.30
Blended Fair Value$19.18
Current Price$8.38
Upside128.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.43%12.20%0.510.290.260.270.200.410.030.150.110.07
YoY Growth--75.73%13.07%-4.22%33.65%-51.18%1,161.08%-78.91%38.21%54.63%-55.21%
Dividend Yield--5.18%3.95%4.03%4.81%2.86%7.05%0.31%2.32%1.68%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,483.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,690.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,793.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,096.78685.49411.29
Cash Retained (M)2,793.832,793.832,793.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,096.78-685.49-411.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,697.052,108.352,382.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,504.056,504.056,504.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.21$25.06$39.26
Upside / Downside105.34%199.03%368.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,483.915,840.366,219.996,624.297,054.877,513.437,738.83
Payout Ratio49.05%57.24%65.43%73.62%81.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,690.083,343.214,069.894,876.915,771.646,762.097,158.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,020.753,049.393,078.02
Year 2 PV (M)3,322.663,385.943,449.83
Year 3 PV (M)3,597.483,700.763,805.98
Year 4 PV (M)3,846.853,994.794,146.96
Year 5 PV (M)4,072.294,268.984,473.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,967.9768,105.9571,364.03
Equity Value (M)82,828.0186,505.8190,318.01
Shares Outstanding (M)6,504.056,504.056,504.05
Fair Value$12.73$13.30$13.89
Upside / Downside51.97%58.71%65.71%

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