Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited (601225.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$154.84 - $392.49$367.82
Multi-Stage$58.02 - $63.42$60.67
Blended Fair Value$214.25
Current Price$20.00
Upside971.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.18%20.50%1.542.201.710.890.430.400.460.330.200.19
YoY Growth---29.81%28.32%91.44%106.34%9.20%-13.03%39.56%63.10%8.20%-22.42%
Dividend Yield--7.78%8.88%8.41%5.43%3.92%5.30%4.82%4.24%3.24%4.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,129.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,357.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,772.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,825.932,391.201,434.72
Cash Retained (M)4,772.374,772.374,772.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,825.93-2,391.20-1,434.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)946.442,381.163,337.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,693.029,693.029,693.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.250.34
LTM Dividend per Share1.481.481.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.250.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$154.84$367.82$392.49
Upside / Downside674.19%1,739.10%1,862.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,129.6320,373.0621,697.3123,107.6324,609.6326,209.2626,995.53
Payout Ratio75.05%78.04%81.03%84.02%87.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,357.2615,899.5417,581.6519,415.2621,412.9623,588.3324,970.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,778.4614,918.5415,058.62
Year 2 PV (M)15,189.6815,479.0015,771.05
Year 3 PV (M)15,591.1016,038.6616,494.71
Year 4 PV (M)15,982.8616,597.5217,229.74
Year 5 PV (M)16,365.1317,155.5817,976.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)484,494.90507,896.19532,193.09
Equity Value (M)562,402.13588,085.48614,723.48
Shares Outstanding (M)9,693.029,693.029,693.02
Fair Value$58.02$60.67$63.42
Upside / Downside190.11%203.36%217.10%

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