Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xiamen Bank Co., Ltd. (601187.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$157.47 - $185.53$173.87
Multi-Stage$57.87 - $63.44$60.61
Blended Fair Value$117.24
Current Price$6.28
Upside1,766.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.99%16.12%0.540.320.290.190.090.270.290.200.200.10
YoY Growth--69.01%10.46%53.25%119.90%-68.05%-6.80%45.90%-0.21%93.83%-15.71%
Dividend Yield--9.09%6.00%5.31%2.81%0.90%2.83%3.04%2.08%2.09%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,599.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,370.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,228.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)519.91324.95194.97
Cash Retained (M)1,228.641,228.641,228.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-519.91-324.95-194.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)708.73903.701,033.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,786.592,786.592,786.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.320.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.320.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.86
WACC / Discount Rate4.70%4.70%4.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$157.47$173.87$185.53
Upside / Downside2,407.50%2,668.57%2,854.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,599.572,768.542,948.493,140.143,344.253,561.633,668.48
Payout Ratio52.74%60.19%67.64%75.09%82.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,370.921,666.361,994.422,358.082,760.593,205.473,393.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.70%4.70%4.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,576.601,591.551,606.49
Year 2 PV (M)1,785.351,819.351,853.68
Year 3 PV (M)1,997.182,054.512,112.93
Year 4 PV (M)2,212.152,297.222,384.73
Year 5 PV (M)2,430.282,547.672,669.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)151,269.87158,576.26166,162.28
Equity Value (M)161,271.43168,886.56176,789.65
Shares Outstanding (M)2,786.592,786.592,786.59
Fair Value$57.87$60.61$63.44
Upside / Downside821.56%865.08%910.24%

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