Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (601186.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.14 - $325.23$110.93
Multi-Stage$47.42 - $51.92$49.63
Blended Fair Value$80.28
Current Price$7.85
Upside922.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.91%6.65%1.641.440.250.230.210.210.930.870.760.85
YoY Growth--14.33%484.47%6.96%9.52%0.00%-77.46%7.47%13.88%-10.59%-1.38%
Dividend Yield--20.76%16.53%2.73%3.00%2.62%2.14%7.99%8.85%5.86%7.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,511.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,496.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,015.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,502.382,813.991,688.39
Cash Retained (M)8,015.058,015.058,015.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,502.38-2,813.99-1,688.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,512.675,201.076,326.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,579.5413,579.5413,579.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.380.47
LTM Dividend per Share1.071.071.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.380.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Fair Value$58.14$110.93$325.23
Upside / Downside640.57%1,313.15%4,043.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,511.9023,647.9324,841.2926,094.8727,411.7128,795.0129,658.86
Payout Ratio64.40%69.52%74.64%79.76%84.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,496.8416,439.3518,541.0020,812.8923,266.8625,915.5127,434.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate4.05%5.05%6.05%
Year 1 PV (M)15,300.5715,447.6215,594.68
Year 2 PV (M)16,061.2316,371.4416,684.62
Year 3 PV (M)16,780.3417,268.8417,766.73
Year 4 PV (M)17,459.3918,140.3518,841.03
Year 5 PV (M)18,099.8018,986.4819,907.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)560,260.09587,706.19616,217.54
Equity Value (M)643,961.41673,920.92705,012.16
Shares Outstanding (M)13,579.5413,579.5413,579.54
Fair Value$47.42$49.63$51.92
Upside / Downside504.09%532.20%561.37%

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