Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

First Tractor Company Limited (601038.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.24 - $95.82$38.57
Multi-Stage$14.34 - $15.64$14.98
Blended Fair Value$26.77
Current Price$12.67
Upside111.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.83%7.65%0.320.240.120.090.060.120.170.180.140.16
YoY Growth--34.21%102.03%25.05%48.68%-48.92%-27.34%-2.81%24.29%-9.90%2.63%
Dividend Yield--2.32%1.42%1.08%0.79%0.56%1.91%3.17%2.55%1.26%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)815.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)582.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)232.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163.06101.9161.15
Cash Retained (M)232.42232.42232.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-163.06-101.91-61.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.36130.51171.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,123.651,123.651,123.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.24$38.57$95.82
Upside / Downside75.57%204.43%656.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)815.31868.30924.74984.851,048.871,117.041,150.55
Payout Ratio71.49%75.19%78.90%82.60%86.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)582.89652.91729.58813.46905.161,005.341,064.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)597.47603.14608.80
Year 2 PV (M)610.94622.58634.33
Year 3 PV (M)623.34641.23659.47
Year 4 PV (M)634.71659.12684.22
Year 5 PV (M)645.10676.26708.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,000.3213,628.2414,280.19
Equity Value (M)16,111.8816,830.5717,575.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,123.651,123.651,123.65
Fair Value$14.34$14.98$15.64
Upside / Downside13.17%18.22%23.45%

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