Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Publishing&Media Co.,Ltd (601019.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.11 - $13.12$10.36
Multi-Stage$9.11 - $9.96$9.53
Blended Fair Value$9.95
Current Price$7.66
Upside29.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.98%11.89%0.550.380.350.320.310.290.220.190.320.06
YoY Growth--43.92%11.20%9.38%0.21%9.69%30.90%15.70%-39.86%404.09%-65.18%
Dividend Yield--5.68%3.39%4.37%4.88%5.29%4.44%2.48%1.87%2.15%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,544.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)648.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)895.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)308.82193.01115.81
Cash Retained (M)895.72895.72895.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-308.82-193.01-115.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)586.90702.70779.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,120.442,120.442,120.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.330.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.330.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate2.59%3.59%4.59%
Fair Value$8.11$10.36$13.12
Upside / Downside5.88%35.30%71.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,544.111,599.541,656.961,716.441,778.051,841.881,897.14
Payout Ratio41.99%51.59%61.19%70.80%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)648.39825.251,013.971,215.181,429.521,657.691,754.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate2.59%3.59%4.59%
Year 1 PV (M)743.27750.51757.76
Year 2 PV (M)822.51838.63854.90
Year 3 PV (M)887.80914.02940.74
Year 4 PV (M)940.64977.861,016.17
Year 5 PV (M)982.421,031.241,081.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,945.6115,688.3716,460.37
Equity Value (M)19,322.2520,200.6221,111.91
Shares Outstanding (M)2,120.442,120.442,120.44
Fair Value$9.11$9.53$9.96
Upside / Downside18.96%24.37%29.98%

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