Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (600998.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.11 - $24.93$16.09
Multi-Stage$8.25 - $8.99$8.61
Blended Fair Value$12.35
Current Price$4.85
Upside154.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.39%11.39%0.310.330.280.330.150.230.190.140.140.09
YoY Growth---4.97%17.77%-17.46%127.96%-35.28%17.86%36.11%-1.72%57.42%-13.04%
Dividend Yield--6.13%5.20%4.98%6.77%2.19%3.59%3.25%1.96%1.98%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,786.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,291.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,494.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)557.33348.33209.00
Cash Retained (M)1,494.751,494.751,494.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-557.33-348.33-209.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)937.411,146.411,285.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,026.155,026.155,026.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.11$16.09$24.93
Upside / Downside129.10%231.73%414.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,786.652,967.793,160.693,366.143,584.943,817.963,932.50
Payout Ratio46.36%55.09%63.82%72.54%81.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,291.911,634.912,017.042,441.942,913.553,436.163,637.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,476.201,490.191,504.18
Year 2 PV (M)1,644.441,675.761,707.38
Year 3 PV (M)1,797.581,849.191,901.77
Year 4 PV (M)1,936.552,011.032,087.63
Year 5 PV (M)2,062.202,161.812,265.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,528.3134,099.4435,730.70
Equity Value (M)41,445.2843,287.4145,196.88
Shares Outstanding (M)5,026.155,026.155,026.15
Fair Value$8.25$8.61$8.99
Upside / Downside70.02%77.58%85.41%

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