DDM Analysis: 600958.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.47 - $119.02	$44.69
Multi-Stage	$21.59 - $23.67	$22.61
Blended Fair Value	$33.65
Current Price	$11.44
Upside	194.18%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.12%	17.23%	0.53	0.46	0.62	0.56	0.52	0.50	0.57	0.51	0.56	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	14.52%	-25.35%	10.66%	8.35%	3.14%	-11.99%	12.69%	-9.68%	94.52%	166.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.62%	5.57%	6.34%	5.21%	5.95%	5.61%	4.78%	4.15%	3.89%	1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,158.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,262.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,895.65

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,031.70	644.81	386.89
Cash Retained (M)	1,895.65	1,895.65	1,895.65
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,031.70	-644.81	-386.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)	863.95	1,250.84	1,508.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,455.13	8,455.13	8,455.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.15	0.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.39	0.39	0.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.15	0.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.49	0.53	0.56
WACC / Discount Rate	5.70%	5.70%	5.70%
Growth Rate	3.45%	4.45%	5.45%
Fair Value	$22.47	$44.69	$119.02
Upside / Downside	96.38%	290.68%	940.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,158.51	5,388.22	5,628.16	5,878.78	6,140.57	6,414.01	6,606.43
Payout Ratio	63.25%	68.60%	73.95%	79.30%	84.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,262.86	3,696.40	4,162.09	4,661.92	5,198.01	5,772.61	6,110.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.70%	5.70%	5.70%
Growth Rate	3.45%	4.45%	5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,463.57	3,497.05	3,530.53
Year 2 PV (M)	3,654.27	3,725.25	3,796.92
Year 3 PV (M)	3,835.29	3,947.59	4,062.05
Year 4 PV (M)	4,006.96	4,164.15	4,325.92
Year 5 PV (M)	4,169.60	4,375.06	4,588.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	163,440.61	171,494.07	179,861.91
Equity Value (M)	182,570.30	191,203.17	200,165.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,455.13	8,455.13	8,455.13
Fair Value	$21.59	$22.61	$23.67
Upside / Downside	88.75%	97.67%	106.94%

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Orient Securities Company Limited (600958.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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