Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Bank of Xi'an Co.,Ltd. (600928.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.33 - $6.26$5.27
Multi-Stage$6.65 - $7.30$6.97
Blended Fair Value$6.12
Current Price$3.89
Upside57.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.44%0.45%0.080.200.240.660.240.180.090.080.130.10
YoY Growth---57.66%-17.09%-63.23%171.33%30.88%111.70%12.85%-39.04%31.36%19.26%
Dividend Yield--2.42%5.82%7.08%16.63%4.64%3.36%0.70%1.15%1.88%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,664.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)593.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,071.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)532.94333.09199.85
Cash Retained (M)2,071.362,071.362,071.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-532.94-333.09-199.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,538.421,738.281,871.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,447.204,447.204,447.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-1.55%-0.55%0.45%
Fair Value$4.33$5.27$6.26
Upside / Downside11.30%35.39%60.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,664.692,650.022,635.422,620.902,606.472,592.112,669.87
Payout Ratio22.27%35.81%49.36%62.91%76.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)593.33949.051,300.841,648.721,992.732,332.902,469.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-1.55%-0.55%0.45%
Year 1 PV (M)859.18867.91876.64
Year 2 PV (M)1,066.141,087.911,109.89
Year 3 PV (M)1,223.291,260.951,299.37
Year 4 PV (M)1,338.531,393.751,450.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,418.631,492.161,568.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,652.4624,878.3626,154.58
Equity Value (M)29,558.2330,981.0332,459.84
Shares Outstanding (M)4,447.204,447.204,447.20
Fair Value$6.65$6.97$7.30
Upside / Downside70.86%79.09%87.63%

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