Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangzhou Guangri Stock Co.,Ltd. (600894.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.57 - $151.55$141.99
Multi-Stage$83.11 - $91.36$87.15
Blended Fair Value$114.57
Current Price$9.89
Upside1,058.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS87.27%33.54%1.310.180.240.410.160.060.150.410.790.20
YoY Growth--612.04%-21.95%-42.14%163.18%172.23%-60.82%-64.86%-47.44%299.53%170.85%
Dividend Yield--10.92%2.02%3.20%5.33%1.80%0.78%1.98%4.71%5.86%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)664.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)651.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)132.8983.0549.83
Cash Retained (M)12.8412.8412.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-132.89-83.05-49.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-120.05-70.22-37.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)850.06850.06850.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.08-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.770.770.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.08-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Fair Value$128.57$141.99$151.55
Upside / Downside1,199.97%1,335.67%1,432.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)664.44689.70715.93743.16771.42800.75824.77
Payout Ratio98.07%96.45%94.84%93.23%91.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)651.60665.25678.99692.82706.72720.68762.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)649.02655.34661.65
Year 2 PV (M)646.28658.91671.67
Year 3 PV (M)643.36662.31681.64
Year 4 PV (M)640.26665.53691.55
Year 5 PV (M)636.97668.56701.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,430.7770,774.8274,250.24
Equity Value (M)70,646.6674,085.4877,658.15
Shares Outstanding (M)850.06850.06850.06
Fair Value$83.11$87.15$91.36
Upside / Downside740.32%781.22%823.72%

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