Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Star Lake Bioscience Co., Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong (600866.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.70 - $153.34$56.70
Multi-Stage$16.59 - $18.12$17.34
Blended Fair Value$37.02
Current Price$7.59
Upside387.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS122.72%29.16%0.450.090.050.050.010.010.010.020.020.02
YoY Growth--390.19%90.44%-11.89%449.67%21.21%-11.23%-52.30%-16.47%-0.55%-32.98%
Dividend Yield--7.07%2.08%0.79%0.80%0.25%0.15%0.16%0.44%0.33%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,281.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)701.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)579.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)256.21160.1396.08
Cash Retained (M)579.08579.08579.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-256.21-160.13-96.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)322.87418.95483.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,661.441,661.441,661.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.250.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.250.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.70$56.70$153.34
Upside / Downside278.19%647.10%1,920.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,281.061,364.331,453.011,547.451,648.041,755.161,807.81
Payout Ratio54.80%61.84%68.88%75.92%82.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)701.97843.661,000.801,174.801,367.201,579.641,672.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)775.50782.85790.20
Year 2 PV (M)845.63861.74878.00
Year 3 PV (M)912.46938.66965.35
Year 4 PV (M)976.111,013.651,052.26
Year 5 PV (M)1,036.671,086.741,138.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,020.8224,132.7425,287.21
Equity Value (M)27,567.2028,816.3730,111.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,661.441,661.441,661.44
Fair Value$16.59$17.34$18.12
Upside / Downside118.61%128.51%138.79%

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